Lake Simcoe Anglers Forecast

Updated daily · next 72 hours · powered by Laketrix
⚠
Rough on the open water · 23 km/h Today overnightAbove about 20 km/h, Simcoe's open water gets rough fast, with steep, close-set waves that are a handful for smaller boats. Worth thinking twice about heading out through the peak window. The sheltered bays will fish a lot more comfortably.

Cook's Bay

Shallow, weedy south end. Warms first.
★ Perch★ Pike★ Crappie★ Largemouth
Best time to go
Today · Dawn
Pike · bite 90
Water
Cool
11.5° 7-day mean · +2.5° vs prior weeks
Pressure
1012 hPa
7.6 hPa swing
Wind
23 km/h S
rough for small boats
SpeciesTodayTomorrowFriday
Dawn13°Mid18°Eve16°Night15°Dawn14°Mid15°Eve13°Night12°Dawn11°Mid12°Eve11°Night10°
★Perch858885748587857476848169
★Pike909086759088908184898878
★Crappie577572655973595048495139
★Largemouth303323329242881120211
★ local favourite How active each fish isPrimeGoodFairSlow best window

Tips for the fish you're chasing

★Perch

WHERE: North shoreline is your primary target, wind push is stacking perch hard on that bank right now. Work 10–20ft of water along any available hard-bottom, weed edge, or drop where the flat meets deeper water. Stable pressure at 1015 hPa with a falling temperature means schools are grouped and aggressive, find one fish, find 50.

WHAT: Small jigging spoon or a 2–3" paddle tail on a 1/8oz round ball jig head is the highest-percentage play at this depth. Colour choice matters in cloudy conditions, go chartreuse, gold, or a perch-pattern yellow-green. A small jigging spoon in gold or silver also triggers hard strikes when perch are stacked and competing.

HOW: Drop to bottom, lift 6–12 inches sharp to attract the school, then slow it right down, a 2–3 second deadfall or a barely-crawling 1 inch-per-second retrieve closes the deal. Perch in late fall hit on the drop constantly. The aggressive jig calls them in; the pause gets bit. If you mark fish but they won't commit, downsize to a 1/16oz jig with a 2" grub in natural perch or white and work it nearly motionless.

WARNING: Late fall perch in Cook's Bay draw heavy local pressure, especially on weekends. Crowds on the north shore are common. Know your limit: Sports licence S-50, Conservation licence C-25. These are great eating fish and that quota goes fast in a hot school, count carefully and keep only what you'll use.

★Pike

North shoreline is your first stop. 14 km/h wind pushing into that bank has stacked baitfish against the north shore, pike will be right behind them. Work the dying weed edges in 4–12 ft, targeting the outside weed edge where vegetation has collapsed. Points and current seams along that shore are secondary targets. Stable pressure at 1015 hPa with a cooling water column means pike are in aggressive pre-freeze feeding mode. These fish are fat and looking for a meal.

Big profile, fast retrieve. This is not a finesse bite. Throw large spinnerbaits, magnum willow-leaf blades in chartreuse or white, 1–1.5 oz, over the weed edges at a steady medium-fast retrieve, 1.5–2 ft/sec. Keep the blade just above the dying weeds. Alternatively, a large paddle-tail swimbait (6–8 inches) on a 3/8–1/2 oz swimbait head in white or perch pattern, slow-rolled at 4–8 ft, is a proven big-fish option in this cooling water. Large flashy spoons (1–1.5 oz, gold or chartreuse) burned then paused 2–3 seconds over weed tops also trigger reaction strikes from staged pike.

Work the weed-to-open-water transition hard. As vegetation dies back, pike sit on the outside edge using the last green weeds as ambush cover. Fan-cast parallel to that edge, do not just cast perpendicular and reel in. Cover water aggressively. Cloudy skies today are ideal: pike push shallower and hit reaction baits harder in low light. If you're marking fish but not getting strikes, slow the retrieve by 30% and add a 2-second pause after every 5 ft of retrieve.

One critical warning: late fall pike in Cook's Bay are approaching peak trophy size right now, handle fish quickly, use a large net, and get them back in the water fast. Cold water fish recover slower than you think.

★Crappie

WHERE: North shoreline is your primary target, wind push is stacking baitfish and crappie there right now. Work 8–12ft first. Crappie are suspending tight to any dock pilings, deadfall, or submerged brush in that zone. Cloudy sky extends the feeding window past dawn, don't rush off at 8am.

WHAT: Small tube or grub on a 1/16oz round ball jig head, hook size #1–1/0, 2–3" body. Colour: white or light chartreuse in stained water, natural shad/smoke in clearer pockets. Crappie are cold-water sluggish right now, small profile is the percentage play. If you're marking fish but they won't commit, drop to a 1.5–2" grub on a 1/16oz and go slower.

HOW: Cast past structure and swim it back at a near-dead crawl, roughly 1 full turn of the reel every 3–4 seconds. Pause 2–3 seconds every few feet. Let it flutter on the fall, that's your trigger right now. Crappie hit light in cold water; watch your line for any twitch or sideways jump. Soft-mouth fish, when you feel weight, sweep gently, don't snap. Keep steady pressure all the way to the net or they'll tear free.

CONDITIONS: Stable 1015 hPa is a green light, crappie are active and predictable. Overcast sky gives you a wider bite window than a bluebird day. Wind at 14 km/h is pushing warm surface water north and concentrating bait against that shoreline. If the school goes cold, move 20ft and re-probe, these schools are tight and mobile, don't sit dead water more than 10 minutes.

★Largemouth

North shoreline is your first stop. That 14 km/h wind is piling baitfish against the north bank, largemouth stack tight behind that wind-driven current. Target 4–8ft over submerged weeds, docks, and hard bottom transitions. Cloudy skies kill glare and push fish shallower than you'd expect in November. Work within 50ft of shore.

Lead with a lipless crankbait or hard jerkbait to cover water fast. Gold or firetiger in this stained, low-light bay. Burn a lipless through the 4–6ft zone to locate active fish, then pause 2–3 seconds on the retrieve, that's when they eat. If the jerkbait's your call, work it on a twitch-twitch-pause rhythm with 3–4 second pauses. Water's cool so they won't chase long, get it into the strike zone and slow down.

Once you mark fish, switch to a 3–4" soft plastic on a 1/8–1/4oz jig head. Crawfish or creature-style plastic in brown or pumpkin. Dead-slow drag along bottom at 6–10ft, one foot per second or slower, with water this cool, finesse is non-negotiable. Hop it twice, let it sit 4–5 seconds. Bites are subtle, nearly like a hang-up. Watch your line.

Stable pressure is a plus, but 13°C air means water's close to that 10°C slowdown threshold. Bite windows are short, fish hardest the first two hours of light. Expect less aggression, more reaction. Don't grind dead water, if a spot hasn't produced in 15 minutes, move. The fish are there today, but they're not chasing. Bring them to the bait.

Kempenfelt Bay

Deep cold western arm. Lake trout water.
Whitefish · closedLake trout · closed
Best time to go
Today · Mid
Perch · bite 85
Water
Cool
10.6° 7-day mean · +2.1° vs prior weeks
Pressure
1012 hPa
7.6 hPa swing
Wind
21 km/h S
rough for small boats
SpeciesTodayTomorrowFriday
Dawn14°Mid20°Eve17°Night16°Dawn15°Mid15°Eve13°Night12°Dawn11°Mid12°Eve10°Night10°
Smallmouth55635840635742233132279
Perch828584718584827180807866
Pike797977667977797177777669
★ local favourite How active each fish isPrimeGoodFairSlow best window

Strawberry Island

Main-basin structure. Shoals into deep water.
★ Smallmouth★ PerchWhitefish · closedLake trout · closed
Best time to go
Today · Mid
Perch · bite 88
Water
Cool
10.5° 7-day mean · +2.2° vs prior weeks
Pressure
1012 hPa
7.7 hPa swing
Wind
22 km/h S
rough for small boats
SpeciesTodayTomorrowFriday
Dawn13°Mid18°Eve16°Night15°Dawn14°Mid15°Eve13°Night12°Dawn11°Mid12°Eve11°Night9°
★Smallmouth456759434461442325343410
★Perch858885748587857476848169
Pike797976667977797174787769
Largemouth2526192242024791616–
★ local favourite How active each fish isPrimeGoodFairSlow best window

Tips for the fish you're chasing

★Smallmouth

WHERE: North shoreline is your primary target, wind push is stacking fish there right now. Work rocky points, humps, and reef edges in 10–18ft. Barometric pressure is falling, which typically triggers a short feeding window before fish go negative, fish fast and aggressive for the first hour, then slow down if the bite stalls.

WHAT: Lead with a football-head jig in 1/4oz paired with a 3–4" craw or creature plastic in natural brown, green pumpkin, or goby patterns. Clear-water Lake Simcoe demands natural colours, stay away from chartreuse. Second rod: a deep-diving crankbait that runs 12–18ft in a perch or natural shad pattern, 2.5–3" size.

HOW: Drag the football jig dead-slow along bottom rock rubble, 1–2 seconds of drag, 3-second pause, repeat. These fish are cold-water lethargic; a fast retrieve kills the bite. With the crankbait, crank down to depth and slow-roll it through the structure, stopping on contact with any rock. Fall smallmouth are holding tight to bottom, so contact with structure is not optional, it's the trigger.

WARNING: Falling barometer means the feeding window is likely short, 60 to 90 minutes, then fish go tight-lipped. If you're not getting bites in the first hour, downsize to a 2–3" finesse ned-style bait on a 1/8oz finesse head and slow everything down further. Cold Simcoe smallmouth in November are some of the hardest-fighting fish of the year, keep the drag set properly, they will run.

★Perch

North shoreline is your first stop. Wind out of the south is pushing warm surface water and baitfish against that bank, perch are stacking there right now. Start in 9–15ft along any hard-bottom flat or weedbed edge. Falling pressure means the school is active and feeding, not suspended and finicky. Hit it early.

Work a small jig tipped with a soft plastic. A 1/8oz round ball head paired with a 2–3" grub or paddle tail in white, perch, or natural shad colour is your highest-percentage presentation in clear Simcoe water at this depth. Drop to bottom, lift 6 inches, let it fall on a semi-slack line. Pause 2–3 seconds. Perch hit on the drop. If you're not getting bit in 90 seconds, move 20ft and repeat.

Don't ignore the deeper transition. Knowledge base puts fall schools aggregating toward 20–35ft as water cools toward ice-up. If the shallows go quiet, slide out to 15–19ft along the same north shore where the bottom drops off. Switch to a 1/4oz jigging spoon in silver or gold, snap it up 12 inches, let it flutter back. That flash and flutter is a feeding trigger when perch are loose and scattered. Cloudy skies today mute light penetration, so bump to chartreuse or gold if you're marking fish but not converting.

Keep your limit in mind. Perch season is open, check your licence class for your daily limit and handle fish quickly in cool air to keep table quality high. This is prime eating season; locals hammer perch hard right now for a reason. School them up with aggressive jigging first, then slow your cadence to load the net.

Solunar bite windows

Bonus · moon-driven feeding peaks, the same across the lake. Strongest when a green window above lands inside a major.
TodayWaning crescent · 26% lit
Major
07:24 - 09:24
Major
19:56 - 21:56
Minor
00:56 - 02:56
Minor
13:49 - 15:49
TomorrowWaning crescent · 17% lit
Major
08:08 - 10:08
Major
20:40 - 22:40
Minor
02:06 - 04:06
Minor
14:08 - 16:08
FridayWaning crescent · 10% lit
Major
08:52 - 10:52
Major
21:20 - 23:20
Minor
03:15 - 05:15
Minor
14:28 - 16:28
Majors are when the moon is overhead or underfoot (the bigger pull), minors are moonrise and moonset. Windows ringed in gold fall near sunrise or sunset, often the most productive of all.
Generated Nov 4, 2026, 4:01 a.m. · cottage country soundtrack: Mammoth Radio