Lake Simcoe Anglers Forecast
Cook's Bay
| Species | Today | Tomorrow | Friday | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn8° | Mid11° | Eve12° | Night10° | Dawn10° | Mid18° | Eve15° | Night10° | Dawn9° | Mid10° | Eve9° | Night7° | |
| ★Perch | 80 | 81 | 78 | 69 | 78 | 78 | 76 | 61 | 78 | 67 | 66 | 57 |
| ★Pike | 86 | 86 | 86 | 75 | 86 | 86 | 84 | 69 | 84 | 73 | 73 | 65 |
| ★Crappie | 32 | 31 | 37 | 27 | 32 | 38 | 37 | 19 | 29 | 9 | 10 | 7 |
| ★Largemouth | 6 | 5 | 2 | – | – | 9 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – |
Tips for the fish you're chasing
Northwest shoreline is your starting point. Wind push is stacking perch against that bank right now. Target 9–19ft at dawn, then follow the school deeper, 20–35ft by mid-morning as they aggregate in classic fall mode. Look for hard bottom transitions, any weed edge remnants, or subtle depth breaks. Rising pressure after a falling trend means the bite window is open but may tighten as the day progresses, fish fast early.
Lead with a small jigging spoon, 1/4oz, gold or chartreuse. Drop to bottom, rip it 18 inches, let it flutter back down on a 2-second pause. That flash and flutter calls the school in. Once you mark fish or start getting hits, downsize immediately, switch to a 1/8oz jig head paired with a 2–3" paddle tail or grub in white or perch-pattern natural colour. Work it with a slow lift-drop, 6 inches of lift, 3-second pause. Cold water means perch commit slower, don't rush the pause.
Structure detail matters more than location at this depth. Once you're in the 20–35ft range mid-morning, watch your sonar for fish suspending just off bottom, 1 to 3 feet up is where the school holds in fall. If you're not marking anything, move 50 feet along the break and drop again. These are large aggregating schools; if they're not there, they're somewhere nearby. Lateral movement finds them faster than depth changes.
Patchy rain and 17 km/h wind will chop the surface. That actually helps, diffused light keeps perch shallower longer and reduces lure scrutiny. Baro is rising on a prior falling trend, which is a good sign, but don't expect an all-day rager. Your best window is likely the first 2–3 hours of daylight. Regulations are open, Sports licence S-4 daily, Conservation C-2. These fall perch are in prime table condition. Keep what you'll eat and move fast while the school is stacked.
Northwest shoreline is your first stop. Wind has been stacking baitfish against that bank all day, pike will be tight to the dying weed edges in 4–8ft, using the remaining cabbage and coontail as ambush cover. Rising pressure after a falling trend is a known trigger for aggressive feeding. These fish are in pre-freeze mode and eating hard.
Lead with a large spinnerbait or in-line spinner, 1–1.5oz, in white or chartreuse. Cast parallel to the weed edge and burn it back at a steady 3–4ft depth, fast enough to tick the tops of the remaining vegetation. Don't slow down. Fall pike on Cook's Bay react to speed and flash. If the weed edge breaks into a point or transitions to rock, slow down for exactly 2–3 seconds, then accelerate again. That pause-and-surge is where big fish commit.
Secondary play: a large weedless spoon, gold or silver, 1–1.5oz, worked over the dying mats in 4–10ft. Cast into the thickest remaining cover and skitter it back across the surface, letting it flutter and sink 1–2 seconds at open water pockets. Pike are using the decomposing weeds as a thermal buffer, they're not in open water yet. An 8–10" soft swimbait on a weighted swimbait head, 3/8–1/2oz, worked slowly along the outside weed edge in 8–12ft is a legitimate trophy setup if you want the biggest fish in the bay.
Patchy rain and cloud cover are working in your favour, low light keeps pike out of the weeds longer into the morning. Fish fast presentations first and drop to slower, larger profiles if the aggressive bite fades by midday. Pike season is open, so keep what you're licensed for and handle fish quickly, cold water recovery is fast but big pike still deserve a clean release.
Northwest shoreline is your first stop. Wind push at 16.9 km/h is stacking crappie against that shore right now. Target 6–10ft at first light, overcast and patchy rain kills light penetration, which is a green light for crappie to stay shallow longer than usual. Rising pressure with a falling baro trend noted means the bite window may be compressing, fish hard early.
Light tube jig or small grub, 1/16oz, on a finesse or tube head. Match a 2–3" plastic to that weight. Go white, pearl, or light chartreuse in this stained fall water, those colour families trigger strikes when visibility is low. Drop vertically under a slip float set at 7–9ft, or work it on a slow 1-foot lift-and-pause retrieve. Hold the pause 3–4 seconds, crappie hit on the drop. Keep your rod tip up and your drag light.
Tight schools mean location is everything. If you don't connect within 10 casts, move 20ft and repeat. Crappie schools in fall can be the size of a pickup truck, you're either on them or you're not. River mouths and dock pilings along that northwest bank concentrate fish and break wind fetch. Start there before running open bank.
Soft mouths, gentle hookset. A sharp snap will tear free every time. Firm, steady lift is all you need. Crappie season is open with no indication of closure, fish them confidently, check your licence class for current daily limits, and handle them carefully if releasing.
Northwest shoreline is your first stop. Wind push is stacking baitfish against that bank right now. Target 4–8ft over submerged weeds, dock edges, and any remaining green vegetation. Water this cold, 8°C air, likely sub-10°C surface, means largemouth are sluggish but still feeding in short windows, especially at dawn.
Lead with a lipless crankbait to find active fish fast. Medium-sized profile, chrome or shad-pattern (natural sides, white belly) in 4–8ft. Slow your retrieve to 1 turn per 2 seconds, colder water means half the speed you'd use in summer. Let it deflect off any remaining weed edges and kill it for 2–3 seconds on contact. If that draws follows but no commitment, downsize immediately.
When you mark fish but can't convert, go finesse. A 3–4" paddle tail on a 1/8oz swimbait head, natural goby or white, dragged slowly across the bottom at 6–9ft. One slow pull, 3-second pause, repeat. Biting fish are staging tight to cover, don't move the bait far. A jig with a chunk-style plastic in green pumpkin or black-blue at the same depth is a strong alternative when the bite is really pressured.
Rising barometer after a pressure drop is a short positive window, use it early. Fish typically feed briefly as pressure stabilizes, then shut down again. The patchy rain and 16.9 km/h wind give you enough chop to fish the northwest bank without spooking shallow fish. Work fast to find them, slow down once you do, and prioritize that northwest shoreline above everything else today.
Kempenfelt Bay
| Species | Today | Tomorrow | Friday | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn8° | Mid13° | Eve12° | Night8° | Dawn9° | Mid19° | Eve15° | Night10° | Dawn8° | Mid10° | Eve9° | Night6° | |
| Smallmouth | 13 | 17 | 23 | – | 15 | 23 | 22 | – | 8 | 8 | 8 | – |
| Perch | 78 | 78 | 75 | 66 | 78 | 75 | 75 | 58 | 75 | 73 | 72 | 54 |
| Pike | 76 | 76 | 76 | 66 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 61 | 74 | 72 | 72 | 55 |
Strawberry Island
| Species | Today | Tomorrow | Friday | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn8° | Mid11° | Eve12° | Night10° | Dawn10° | Mid17° | Eve15° | Night10° | Dawn9° | Mid10° | Eve9° | Night7° | |
| ★Smallmouth | 12 | 16 | 22 | – | 14 | 22 | 19 | – | 10 | – | – | – |
| ★Perch | 78 | 81 | 78 | 69 | 78 | 78 | 76 | 61 | 78 | 67 | 66 | 57 |
| Pike | 74 | 76 | 76 | 66 | 76 | 76 | 74 | 61 | 74 | 64 | 64 | 57 |
| Largemouth | 2 | 4 | 2 | – | – | 7 | 5 | – | – | – | – | – |
Tips for the fish you're chasing
Northwest shoreline is your first stop. Wind has been pushing baitfish into that shore all morning, smallmouth stack behind the pressure wave, holding on any rocky point or submerged boulder pile they can find. Target 10–18ft. That's where the thermocline and the structure intersect right now in cold fall water.
Drop a football-head jig, 3/16–1/4oz, paired with a 3–4" craw or creature trailer in green pumpkin or natural brown. Drag it slow, 2 inches per pull, 3-second pause on the bottom. Cold water means their metabolism is low; they're not chasing. Put it on their nose. Falling barometer with a rising readout is a mixed signal, fish are likely neutral to slightly negative, so finesse beats power. If they're not responding to the craw, downsize to a 3" paddle tail on a 1/8oz round ball head in perch or goby colour and swim it just off bottom at roughly 0.5 rod lengths per second.
If the northwest bank isn't producing by mid-morning, pivot to the main-basin rocky shoals and humps in 15–20ft. Fall smallmouth in Simcoe progressively load onto main-lake structure as water cools. A deep-diving crankbait that reaches 12–16ft, in natural shad or perch colour, cranked slowly through rock rubble with deflection pauses is a proven alternative. Let it tick bottom, that's the trigger. One or two taps on rock often produces a hit on the pause.
Watch your footing on the shoreline, patchy rain nearby makes exposed rock slick and dangerous. Wind at 17 km/h out of the northwest with strong fetch can push waves onto that shore unpredictably. Keep your cast angle parallel to the bank rather than wading in. Smallmouth are catch-and-release recommended in fall, they're at peak weight and the cold water means longer recovery time, so keep them in the water for the release.
Northwest shoreline is your first stop. Strong wind fetch is piling baitfish and perch against that shore right now. Start in 9–15ft and work deeper to 19ft if the shallow bite goes quiet. Look for soft bottom transitioning to hard, perch school tight on those edges in fall.
Rising pressure at 1028 hPa with patchy rain overhead is a mixed signal. The knowledge base says baro trend is falling, so treat this as a transitional window, perch will feed but may suspend slightly off bottom. Hit them on the drop. A small jigging spoon (1/8–3/16oz) in gold or chartreuse-yellow is your highest-percentage call in stained fall water. Work it with sharp 6-inch pops, 2-second pauses, let it flutter back. That flutter is the trigger.
Second setup: a 2–3" paddle tail or small grub on a 1/8oz round ball jig head in perch or goby pattern. Drag it slow along bottom, one 6-inch lift, 3-second pause, repeat. If the jigging spoon pulls the school in, drop the finesse rig and pick off the followers. In 15–19ft, bump up to 3/16–1/4oz to stay in contact with the bottom through the wind drift.
Season is open, so check your licence class before keeping fish, Sports licence holders keep more than Conservation, and limits differ. Strong 16.9 km/h wind on open water means keep your boat anchored or use a heavy enough jig to stay vertical, drifting this presentation kills your feel and your hookup rate. Wet hands before the rain turns to white caps, watch your window today.